Our CSCF Simulator suggests that the Commission's ETS Fit-for-55 reform proposal is more resilient to a CSCF than the Impact Assessment might suggest.
The difference in finding seems to be due to the following factors:
Assuming the Commission's rule changes are introduced in 2024, and activity levels and emissions intensity improvements are consistent in the baseline periods, the proposal just avoids a CSCF.
See below for an explanation of the model and its assumptions in more detail. The parameters can be adjusted directly below.
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Benchmark data report
Phase IV cap and LRF value
Phase III cap and LRF value
Commission's ETS reform proposal