We've updated our CSCF Simulator based on the ETS trilogue agreement of December 2022, finding that the risk of a CSCF in Phase IV remains low.

The simulator works as described in our earlier post of 15/07/21 but has been adjusted to match the cap provisions in the final trilogue agreement. You can adjust the HAL (Historical Activity Level) parameter to test different scenarios.

Please note that the simulator does not consider the following:

• The forthcoming revision of the benchmark boundaries, which will potentially entail giving free allocation to new processes, such as green hydrogen production.
• New provisions for giving additional free allocation to district heating sub-installations.
• The CSCF protection that will be provided to installations that outperform their benchmark using allowances that are not allocated due to Article 10a(1).

The simulator assumes that changes in allocation due to the CBAM Factor, Article 10a(1), and dynamic adjustments will be administered so as not to affect the general CSCF value.

​For further information, or to provide feedback, please contact damien.green@perspectiveclimate.com

Here's our overview of the new EU ETS Phase IV Union-Wide cap based on our analysis of the trilogue agreement (and REPowerEU agreement) of December 2022. Precise cap figures have yet to be announced.

For further information, or to provide feedback, please contact damien.green@perspectiveclimate.com